Natural Disasters, Political Leaders Were Fuel for Weather Manipulation Conspiracy Theories in 2025

TLDR

• As conspiracy theories about weather manipulation have gained political traction in recent years, threats against those believed to be responsible in these alleged conspiracies have increased. 

• Open Measures examined the spread of such theories this year on platforms with predominantly right-wing communities. Researchers broadly found that popular posts about weather manipulation were shared by platform users who also promoted conspiracy theories like QAnon.

• Roughly a quarter of all posts we identified mentioned a US federal government entity or the “deep state.” Despite this, our research found that Truth Social – a platform owned by President Donald Trump – saw the highest number of posts about weather manipulation theories this year.

Background

Weather manipulation conspiracy theories generally assert that, through secret programs, the US government developed methods of manipulating Earth’s atmosphere and now uses that technology to manipulate society and orchestrate natural disasters. Proponents have speculated about how various shadow forces are supposedly enacting this control: weather radar systems, climate change reduction programs, and atmospheric condensation left by commercial airline planes – often dubbed “chemtrails.”¹

While some technology exists to manipulate the weather, like “cloud seeding” programs to coax slightly more precipitation out of clouds, there is no known method of controlling it as these theories posit.² Even still, conspiracy theories about weather manipulation have received buy-in from notable Republican government officials in recent years, reflected in their public statements, legislative efforts, and agency directives.³

Methodology

Open Measures sought to analyze online discussions of weather manipulation conspiracy theories that occurred this year across 13 platforms we monitor, focusing on platforms with predominantly conservative user bases. Our researchers developed a search string from specific phrases (e.g., “weather manipulation”) and niche topics (e.g., “Operation STORMFURY”) associated with the theories and used our platform to identify and analyze their results.

((“weather warfare”~3 OR "weather manipulation"~3 OR "manipulating weather"~3 OR "manipulated weather"~3 OR "manipulates weather"~3 OR "manipulate weather"~3 OR "weather engineering"~3 OR "engineered weather"~3 OR "engineers weather"~3 OR "engineer weather"~3 OR "control weather"~3 OR "controlling weather"~3 OR "controls weather"~3 OR "controlled weather"~3 OR "modifying weather"~3 OR "modified weather"~3 OR "modifies weather"~3 OR "modify weather"~3 OR "weather weapon"~3 OR "weather weapons"~3 OR "weaponized weather"~3 OR "weaponizing weather"~3 OR "weaponizes weather"~3 OR "orchestrate weather"~3 OR "orchestrating weather"~3 OR "orchestrated weather"~3 OR "orchestrates weather"~3) OR ("climate manipulation"~3 OR "manipulating climate"~3 OR "manipulated climate"~3 OR "manipulates climate"~3 OR "manipulate climate"~3 OR "climate engineering"~3 OR "engineered climate"~3 OR "engineers climate"~3 OR "engineer climate"~3 OR "control climate"~3 OR "controlling climate"~3 OR "controls climate"~3 OR "controlled climate"~3 OR "modifying climate"~3 OR "modified climate"~3 OR "modifies climate"~3 OR "modify climate"~3 OR "climate weapon"~3 OR "climate weapons"~3 OR "weaponized climate"~3 OR "weaponizing climate"~3 OR "weaponizes climate"~3 OR "orchestrate climate"~3 OR "orchestrating climate"~3 OR "orchestrated climate"~3 OR "orchestrates climate"~3) OR ("atmospheric manipulation"~3 OR "manipulating atmospheric"~3 OR "manipulated atmospheric"~3 OR "manipulates atmospheric"~3 OR "manipulate atmospheric"~3 OR "atmospheric engineering"~3 OR "engineered atmospheric"~3 OR "engineers atmospheric"~3 OR "engineer atmospheric"~3 OR "control atmospheric"~3 OR "controlling atmospheric"~3 OR "controls atmospheric"~3 OR "controlled atmospheric"~3 OR "modifying atmospheric"~3 OR "modified atmospheric"~3 OR "modifies atmospheric"~3 OR "modify atmospheric"~3 OR "atmospheric weapon"~3 OR "atmospheric weapons"~3 OR "weaponized atmospheric"~3 OR "weaponizing atmospheric"~3 OR "weaponizes atmospheric"~3 OR "orchestrate atmospheric"~3 OR "orchestrating atmospheric"~3 OR "orchestrated atmospheric"~3 OR "orchestrates atmospheric"~3) OR ("atmosphere manipulation"~3 OR "manipulating atmosphere"~3 OR "manipulated atmosphere"~3 OR "manipulates atmosphere"~3 OR "manipulate atmosphere"~3 OR "atmosphere engineering"~3 OR "engineered atmosphere"~3 OR "engineers atmosphere"~3 OR "engineer atmosphere"~3 OR "control atmosphere"~3 OR "controlling atmosphere"~3 OR "controls atmosphere"~3 OR "controlled atmosphere"~3 OR "modifying atmosphere"~3 OR "modified atmosphere"~3 OR "modifies atmosphere"~3 OR "modify atmosphere"~3 OR "atmosphere weapon"~3 OR "atmosphere weapons"~3 OR "weaponized atmosphere"~3 OR "weaponizing atmosphere"~3 OR "weaponizes atmosphere"~3 OR "orchestrate atmosphere"~3 OR "orchestrating atmosphere"~3 OR "orchestrated atmosphere"~3 OR "orchestrates atmosphere"~3) OR ("environmental manipulation"~3 OR "manipulating environmental"~3 OR "manipulated environmental"~3 OR "manipulates environmental"~3 OR "manipulate environmental"~3 OR "environmental engineering"~3 OR "engineered environmental"~3 OR "engineers environmental"~3 OR "engineer environmental"~3 OR "control environmental"~3 OR "controlling environmental"~3 OR "controls environmental"~3 OR "controlled environmental"~3 OR "modifying environmental"~3 OR "modified environmental"~3 OR "modifies environmental"~3 OR "modify environmental"~3 OR "environmental weapon"~3 OR "environmental weapons"~3 OR "weaponized environmental"~3 OR "weaponizing environmental"~3 OR "weaponizes environmental"~3 OR "orchestrate environmental"~3 OR "orchestrating environmental"~3 OR "orchestrated environmental"~3 OR "orchestrates environmental"~3) OR (chemtrail* OR contrail* OR "cloud seeding"~3 OR "cloud seed"~3 OR "high-frequency active auroral research program" OR "haarp" OR “scopex” OR "solar geoengineering" OR "stratospheric aerosol" OR "ionospheric heaters" OR "artificial clouds" OR "operation stormfury" OR "operation popeye" OR "atmospheric rivers"))

Researchers also developed an add-on search string to identify posts in their initial analysis that also mentioned select federal government entities. That query included acronyms for agencies that monitor the environment, departments of the US military, and the “deep state” – a conspiratorial term often used to describe certain federal bureaucrats.

("noaa" OR "epa" OR "darpa" OR "nasa" OR "dod" or "military" OR "army" OR "navy" OR "air force" OR "fema" OR “deep state” OR “faa”)

Analysis

Open Measures identified more than 230,000 total posts containing phrases associated with weather manipulation conspiracy theories shared on the 13 platforms they analyzed (nine text-based platforms and four video-sharing). 

Researchers found that the total numbers of daily posts across all platforms spiked to their highest levels in early July, after severe flash floods in Texas killed at least 135 people.⁴ They also observed a handful of smaller spikes throughout the year, often coinciding with remarks made by elected officials and prominent political figures.

More than 180,700 of the posts we identified (approximately 80%) appeared on the nine text-based platforms, among them microblogging services, messaging apps, and imageboards. Of those posts, more than 40% appeared on Truth Social, a microblogging platform owned by President Donald Trump. About 23% were seen on Gab, 11% on Gettr, 7% on Fediverse platforms, and 7% on Telegram. The remaining 12% of posts were spread across 4chan, 8kun, MeWe, and Minds.

Caption: A timeline chart showing weekly mentions of phrases associated with weather manipulation conspiracy theories across nine text-based platforms between Jan. 1 and Dec. 11, 2025.

An additional 50,000 posts matching our query (the remaining 20%, approximately) came from the four video-based platforms we analyzed, about 6,800 of which were videos; the rest were comments. About 47% of all posts on our four video platforms came from Rumble, a platform with significant backing from Trump Administration officials. About 24% appeared on Bitchute, 21% on TikTok, and 8% on LBRY. 

Caption: A timeline chart showing weekly mentions of phrases associated with weather manipulation conspiracy theories across four video-based platforms between Jan. 1 and Dec. 11, 2025.

Conspiracy theorists mention US federal entities

Researchers found that roughly a quarter of all posts they identified mentioned one of the US federal government entities included in our search string, like the military or the EPA. Viewed over time, mentions of federal identities closely mirrored broader trends in the conversation about weather manipulation among online conspiracy theorists.

Caption: A timeline chart comparing all daily mentions of phrases associated with weather manipulation conspiracy theories across the 13 platforms examined with the number of daily posts that also mentioned one of the federal government entities included in our search string between Jan. 1 and Dec. 11, 2025. (Chart made with Flourish using Open Measures data)

Mentions of federal identities were most concentrated on 8kun, an anonymous imageboard platform. Of all platforms our researchers analyzed, we identified the fewest number of posts about weather manipulation on 8kun – but of those posts, nearly 63% mentioned a federal agency. Comparatively, about 24% of posts on Truth Social – which had the highest number of identified posts overall – mentioned one of the federal entities included in our search.

Caption: A percentage chart showing the proportion of posts containing phrases associated with weather manipulation conspiracy theories that also mentioned federal entities across the 13 platforms we examined. (Chart made with Flourish using Open Measures data)

We used our platform to identify which web domains were most linked-to most frequently on the five platforms where the most posts mentioning federal agencies appeared. On those platforms, posts that included links most often directed to other social media posts but also directed to the EPA website, conspiratorial news sites The Gateway Pundit and Infowars, and a blog dedicated to weather manipulation conspiracy theories called Geoengineering Watch.

Our researchers also found that on these sites, the accounts behind posts that received 50 or more reshares had often developed their audiences by promoting various other extremist right-wing conspiracy theories like QAnon. This was especially evident on Truth Social, where we found the most weather manipulation conspiracy theory posts.

Caption: A chart showing which Truth Social accounts posted the highest number of posts containing phrases related to weather manipulation and mentioning federal agencies that received 50 or more reshares between Jan 1. and Dec. 11, 2025.

Conclusion

Weather manipulation conspiracy theories continued to spread online throughout 2025 on social media platforms dominated by right-wing communities, even as Republican officials have sought to appease the theories’ believers. Of the platforms Open Measures examined, the highest number of posts echoing the claims and casting blame on federal entities were found on Truth Social – a platform owned by the current head of the US government.

In recent years, these outlandish theories have driven a surge in threats against individuals and entities who their believers claim are complicit in weather-control plots. After Hurricane Helene devastated regions of the US in 2024, hardcore believers reportedly threatened government officials, meteorologists, and others responding to the storm.⁵ Earlier this year, a federal bulletin warned that an anti-government extremist group had threatened to attack weather radar systems across the country.⁶

As monitoring the spread of these conspiracy theories can help counter their claims and safeguard against the threats they impose, Open Measures will continue to track and report on these trends.