Threat Briefing: 2026 US Midterm Elections

Officials and organizations across the United States are preparing for potential chaos and confusion surrounding upcoming midterm elections, expecting to face threats and disruptions to the democratic process from government actors and outraged citizens, alike.

Open Measures assesses that the most pressing threats to 2026 midterm elections center on expected federal interventions in state election administration and reactions they may provoke from the current administration’s supporters and opponents. We expect to see threats against election officials, nongovernmental organizations, political figures, and others manifest themselves through this lens, which could drive sudden and intense changes to the threat landscape as voting and ballot-counting processes are conducted and results are announced.

Our researchers will be monitoring and investigating potential risks surrounding midterm elections on a daily basis between Oct. 27 and Nov. 10. Organizations that would like to receive emailed copies of our daily monitoring notes can request access using this form.

What We’re Seeing

The online threat landscape surrounding 2026 midterm elections includes many of the same risks seen throughout prior elections over the last decade. Our researchers have observed troves of false, misleading, and inflammatory online narratives attacking the legitimacy of election results and the integrity of organizations and individuals involved in election-related activities ahead of 2026 midterms. Apart from eroding public trust in democracy, these narratives often elicit violent rhetoric against their subjects, sometimes resulting in physical threats to their safety. Hostile online narratives about elections have also inspired dangerous offline activity, including acts of violence, in prior election cycles.

In recent months, our researchers have noted the following election-related narratives as potential drivers of threats to 2026 midterm elections:

• Demands for federal officials to intervene in state elections and impose national restrictions on ballot access. Our researchers have observed steady calls for the current administration to override state-level election administration during 2026 midterm elections and enact federal policies that would restrict ballot access and make it more difficult to vote. Proponents of such measures have spent months recycling debunked and misleading claims about past elections to argue in support of federal interventions, and we’ve seen online communities aligned with the administration express extreme hostility toward officials who have blocked efforts to change election laws.

• Inflammatory claims about nonprofit groups engaged in election-related activities. Narratives and viral claims accusing nonprofit organizations of engaging in nefarious or potentially illegal activity have seen wide reach on the social media platforms we monitor. Our researchers have observed that these claims have most-often targeted liberally aligned and nonpartisan organizations, which proponents of these narratives have portrayed as conductors of fraudulent election activity meant to advantage the Democratic Party. As these narratives spread, nonprofits and their donors have reportedly faced threats of political violence and legal attacks.

• Scapegoating of minority communities in election-related issues. Narratives portraying racial, religious, and ethnic minority communities as inherent threats to national security and election integrity have gained traction online in recent months. Similarly, narratives alleging that illegal voting by noncitizen immigrants could swing close races have seen wider circulation in online political communities. Law enforcement organizations have warned that surges in dehumanizing and hateful political rhetoric can foster acts of targeted political violence.

• Concern and speculation about potential foreign interference from hostile state actors. Our researchers have noted a resurgence of narratives discussing how known hostile states may have interfered in previous elections, alongside speculation about what those actors may attempt in 2026. We’ve observed those that support federal intervention in upcoming elections cite threats of foreign interference as justification for the administration to declare a national security emergency and seize control over midterm elections.

• Renewed focus on certain methods of voting. Claims that certain methods of voting, including mail-in voting and ballot drop boxes, are uniquely vulnerable to election fraud have resurfaced ahead of 2026 midterms, though our researchers have found much of that chatter has been animated by the administration’s attempts to restrict mail-in voting. In prior elections, narratives about voting methods have inspired vigilante surveillance, alleged acts of voter intimidation, and illegal destruction of ballots.

• Fear and uncertainty over expected federal intervention in elections. Our researchers have seen online communities oppose potential federal interference in 2026 midterms with hyperbolic and speculative rhetoric, casting federal efforts as inevitable and sinister plots to subvert democracy. In some cases, discussions of expected events have included comments from users debating how aggressively they might respond to those scenarios. Over the last year, we’ve seen federal activity elicit widespread protest activity, some of which has turned chaotic and driven acts of violence against federal law enforcement.

What We’re Not Seeing

At the time of writing, our researchers noted that some threats they’d observed ahead of previous elections were less apparent:

• Planned activity from organized extremist movement groups. We have not identified evidence that organized extremist movement groups are actively planning violent or disruptive actions targeting 2026 midterm elections. Our researchers note that organized extremist group activity has steadily declined in the United States since 2023, reflecting many extremist movements’ pivot away from centrally organized groups in favor of decentralized networks. Much of the extremism-motivated violence seen in recent years has come from radicalized individuals. Recent activity and propaganda seen from organized extremist groups has targeted minority groups.

• Open chatter of compromising or sabotaging voting machines. Our researchers have not identified significant chatter concerning the exploitation or destruction of election infrastructure, like voting machines, as they have in prior election cycles.

• Organized efforts to conduct vigilante surveillance of polling places or ballot drop boxes. At the time of writing, our researchers had not seen clear efforts to organize amateur surveillance efforts of polling or ballot drop box locations on or around Election Day, as has occurred in prior election years.

What We’re Watching For

Our researchers will be watching the spaces they know best – niche online communities and platforms – for threats and developing trends that pose risks to election integrity and public safety, including:

• High-impact online narratives that show potential to drive other harms

• Targeted harassment campaigns against public officials and election workers

• Mobilization from extremist political movements and groups

• Planned protest activity that displays signs of being disruptive or violent

• Evidence and claims of inauthentic online activity, including from hostile state actors

• Threats to election-linked locations, like polling sites and ballot-counting centers

• AI-generated and manipulated media that shapes prominent narratives

• Evidence of insider threats to election offices

• Scams and cybercriminal activity related to elections

Open Measures will be monitoring for emerging online threats surrounding 2026 midterm elections on a daily cadence between Oct. 27 and Nov. 10, 2026, and sharing our findings with those interested. Individuals and organizations can opt-in to receive daily updates from our team using this form.