October 24, 2024

Misinformation in Michigan Ahead of 2024 Election

Ahead of the 2024 election, Open Measures tracked misogynistic and Islamophobic trends among misinformation in Michigan.

TLDR

Michigan is a critical swing state for the 2024 presidential election. As such, it has recently been a hotbed for election misinformation.
Election processes and female government officials are frequent targets of abusive and misogynistic language on alt-tech platforms.
Michigan’s Arab and Muslim populations are also being targeted by Islamophobic conspiracies, alleging government infiltration and election fraud.

Background

Swing states, such as Michigan, play an enormous role in determining the outcome of US presidential elections. In the 2016 presidential election, the state’s margin of votes was less than 11,000 (0.23%). Similarly, in the 2020 election, it was less than 155,000 (2.85%).

In 2020, misinformation in Michigan trended toward conspiracy theories about unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud and election irregularities. In response, the state implemented various election reforms, many of which became fodder for misleading narratives about the voting process.

Arab-American Voters in Michigan

Michigan has the second largest population of Arab-Americans in the United States¹ and is home to the country’s first majority Arab-American city in Dearborn.²

Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, both left³ and right-leaning⁴ mainstream news outlets have run similar reporting on the alleged ambivalence of Arab-American voters in Michigan to endorse either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump as presidential candidates. Both sides cite American support for Israel in the war in Gaza—an issue that gained significance among Arab-American during the Democratic primaries—as a key issue that could swing the state in either direction.

Michigan’s largely-Muslim, Arab-American community has also been a recurring subject of conspiracy theorists in right-wing spaces alleging voter fraud. Ahead of the election, nonpartisan community organizations are increasing their presence to combat voter confusion caused by misinformation in Michigan.⁵

Political Violence in Michigan During 2020

During the 2020 presidential election cycle, Michigan saw several instances of political violence fueled by online, right-wing conspiracy theories. In May 2020, a man was charged with terrorism after making credible threats of violence against Governor Gretchen Whitmer on social media platforms.⁶ A few months later, a violent far-right militia group plotted to kidnap Governor Whitmer. Fortunately, law enforcement officials managed to foil the plot by tracking the militia’s activity on social media.⁷

Throughout November 2020, various news outlets began to project Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 election after enough major state contests were called (a standard practice in US elections). In response, far-right conspiracies began to circulate that the election was being “stolen.” The Stop the Steal movement coalesced around these claims, with protestors attempting to disrupt the vote-counting process, questioning the validity of ballots and making unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

On December 5, 2020, armed protestors affiliated with Stop the Steal gathered outside Michigan’s Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s home, chanting threats and obscenities.⁸

Analysis

In the last election cycle, online misinformation in Michigan from the right-wing spurred political violence. Given this context, Open Measures researchers looked into the narratives currently developing in the state ahead of the 2024 election.

For this investigation, Open Measures researchers focused on alt-tech platforms Truth Social and Rumble. Truth Social is a microblogging site similar to X, allowing users to post and interact with others on the platform. Rumble is a video-sharing website similar to YouTube, allowing conversations in the comments section beneath videos. Notably, X, Truth Social, and Rumble all highlight their low levels of content moderation as a selling point.

On Truth Social and Rumble, researchers found a few themes developing in Michigan ahead of the 2024 election:

General election misinformation related to mail-in ballots and alleged voter fraud
Islamophobic claims that Muslims are defrauding the election process
Narratives targeting female government officials

For emphasis, significant sections of the quotes below have been highlighted in bold.

Misinformation in Michigan About Mail-in Ballots and Voter Fraud

One prevalent narrative among conspiracy theorists on Rumble and Truth Social is that mail-in ballots are prone to voter fraud. This idea gained online popularity during the 2020 election.⁹

Shared on Rumble on July 29, 2024 [sic]:

I will tell you something, Wayne county Mi stold the votes and block the people by using the police and by putting up little ceaser pizza boxes on the windows in the center were tally’s were counted. I saw a man with dred locks dumping ballots into a dumpster. He was driving a postal jeep in flat Rock. I watched the news and they caught another young man driving around in Dearborn with his car filled with ballots. He was hitting the drop boxes and senior centers, we know they shut it up as quick as they aired it .

From Truth Social on September 26, 2024 [sic]:

Kamala Harris’ only chance of winning is by committing voter fraud in swing states and even blue states. I think Democrat “strongholds” margin is much thinner than what is officially given. There is already ongoing fraud in Michigan and Wisconsin, they will try to fraud Pennsylvania, there will be fraud in Nevada, they won’t let Virginia flip and there will be fraud in North Carolina and Georgia but not as prevalent as in 2020. I have thoroughly studied the election laws of the states I mentioned, even states that have photo id requirements have alternative measures that allow for people without ID to vote. Mail ballots are a magnet for voter fraud. Without mail ballots and with strict voter ID laws Harris would just hide in the White House’s basement with Joe Biden. The fact that there are people who think Trump is a threat to Democracy or that Kamala can win without voter fraud would be funny if it wasn’t something that could wreck America.

The “Great Replacement” Theory

Other commenters alluded to the “Great Replacement” theory, claiming that votes were being cast illegally in presidential elections.

Posted on Rumble on October 8, 2024 [sic]:

The major problem is voting itself. The Dems have been cheating for many decades, adding millions of illegal votes. That is how they constantly win California, New York, Michigan, Illinois and others. Every election. That is why the Dems always seem to win the popular vote – even while often losing the electoral college. Until all voting is in-person and with photo ID this is a non-go.

This narrative also gained popularity in 2020, motivating the Stop the Steal rally on January 6, 2021 that culminated in an attack on the Capitol Building.

Islamophobic Narratives About Election Fraud

Additionally, the media’s recently increased coverage of Michigan’s Arab-American voters has stirred Islamophobic conspiracy theories online. On Truth Social and Rumble, Open Measures researchers observed posts claiming that Muslims had infiltrated the government, engaged in ballot fraud, and intimidated voters.

Posted on Rumble on August 6, 2024 [sic]:

you guys see that county in michigan, run totally bu muslims…everyone in office is muslim, have been AUCTIONING OFF BALLOTS, MIDNIGHT SESSIONS OF FILLING OUT BALLOTS, HARVESTING AND COMMITTING MASSIVE VOTER AND ELECTION FRAUD?? James Okeefe has broke the story…theyre starting to fraud their way into taking over michigan…we have to address this and stop it or americans will be overtaken, our country will be turned into a muslim nation and we willbe living under sharia law…INVESTIGATE EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN POWER THERE AND PUT A STOP TO THIS SHIT!!

Another post from Rumble on September 25, 2024 [sic]:

Michigan Is STEALING Elections..Intimidations..Coercion..Bribery..Ballot Harvesting And Ballot Auctions And Selecting ALL Muslim Candidates

From Truth Social on September 29, 2024 [sic]:

Yet another example of how the Democrats agenda has come full circle to bite them in the butt. Islamists are good at studying, infiltrating and covertly learning the system and then controlling it to take power. The Democratic Party unknowingly taught them how to cheat, and now they’ve gotten a dose of their own medicine. The Democrats cheating syndicate is starting to implode

Conspiracy Narratives About Female Government Officials

During their investigation, Open Measures researchers noticed a common theme of misogynistic language aimed at senior female government officials (particularly on Truth Social). More specifically, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson were frequently mentioned alongside unsubstantiated allegations of corruption and voter fraud.

Shared on Truth Social on August 24, 204 [sic]:

Nessel had no problem with election “ambiguities” in 2020. Her, Sec of State Benson and the “Bitchmer” took full advantage to cheat. They’ll do it again.

Another post from Truth Social on September 20, 2024 [sic]:

And so it continues. Michigan is no different. Whitmer and SoS benson passed 4 bills to cover up cheating and fraud. AG nessel is silent

Another comment Truth Social on October 7, 2024 [sic]:

The amount of times courts have declared Jocelyn Benson’s election manuals to be unlawful is astounding. She is quickly becoming America’s most corrupt Secretary of State. She is a member of the female wicked three…Whitmer, Nessel, Benson. Michigan never had it so bad.

Some comments also alluded to government officials being controlled by the Soros Family, a common antisemitic trope.

From Truth Social on September 24, 2024 [sic]:

Truth the axis of evil Gretchen Whitmere, Jocelyn Benson, Dana Nessel, all recipients of Soros, family money. All of them are funding Michigan taxpayers money into CCP projects in Michigan. All the while the axis of evil go after anyone who talks about voter fraud, anyone who proves voter fraud will be attacked.

Abusive Language Against Secretary Benson

Secretary Benson is the chief government official responsible for elections in Michigan. As a result, she has attracted outsize attention amid conspiracy theories about the election.

Posted on Truth Social on September 14, 2024 [sic]:

this benson bitch needs to go. can you believe what she said, she threatened anybody who question the 2024 election. se said that she would come for them if they did. this is election interference!!! We must prosecute her!! Come on patriots lets lock her up.

Also on Truth Social, from August 17, 2024 [sic]:

Benson is an evil bitch who needs to be arrested for fraud immediately

Another comment from Truth Social on September 10, 2024 [sic]:

Remember Benson is fighting for her very life. If trump wins, and she cannot cheat him out of office, her life won’t be worth spit.

Posted on Truth Social on September 9, 2024 [sic]:

Jocelyn Benson is corrupt as they come. She is an evil bitch.

In a recent interview, Secretary Benson spoke on the daily threats her office has been receiving ahead of the election to highlight this issue.¹⁰

Potential Sources of Comment Spikes

To some extent, correlation between comment activity mentioning a public figure is to be expected in reaction to significant or viral news stories. Increased activity can be driven by specific stories or outlets, however, which may partially explain certain comment spikes related to Secretary Benson and Attorney General Nessel.

***A timeline graph of Truth Social posts mentioning Secretary Benson from August 1 to October 24, 2024.***

*A timeline graph of Truth Social posts mentioning Attorney General Dana Nessel from August 1 to October 24, 2024.*

The graphs above show the number of posts per day mentioning Secretary Benson and Attorney General Nessel on Truth Social from August 1 to October 24, 2024.

Notably, both graphs have a disproportionate spike on August 29, the day after far-right outlet the Gateway Pundit an unsubstantiated story targeting Benson and Nessel on August 28. The story, which accused both women of voter fraud, was among the site’s most popular that month.

***The headline from an Aug 28, 2024 article from the Gateway Pundit mentioning Attorney General Nessel and Secretary Benson.***

While further research is necessary to determine whether certain comment spikes correspond to specific stories or media outlets, Open Measures’ crawled datasets could help provide further insights.

Conclusion

Given the political violence in Michigan in 2020 as well as the research above, it is clear that online conspiracy narratives have an offline impact. As a competitive swing state, Michigan has been a fertile environment for election disinformation narratives, with talking points and theories resembling those that emerged prior to January 6, 2020.

Current trends in misinformation in Michigan have included voter discontent, prejudice against the Arab community, and other existing conspiracy theories. Regardless of the outcome of the election in November, these narratives may be worth monitoring for future threats.

Identify disinformation and extremism with the Open Measures platform.

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